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북한 정권에 대한 이상 징후 공식화... Jane's 보도
얼마전 우리 신문에 북한의 비상 사태시 중국군의 진입/대응 방안이
보도된 적이 있는데... 이유가 있군요.
김정일주변이 심상치 않은 모양 입니다. 개인 재산까지 챙기며 만약의 도피 상황에
대피하고 있다는 내용이... 북한 사회 내부적으로도 통제력이 통하지
않는 상황이라고...
연초 국운을 논하는 기사에 북한 정권의 운명이 다하였다는 내용이
여러곳에 공통으로 나온 것으로 보았는데.. 진짜 점장이들이 맞으려나요?
Clock ticking for Kim's Korea
By Reuben F Johnson
24 January 2008
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Kim Jong-Il's regime could collapse within six months, bringing chaos to North Korea, observers and intelligence sources in Asia have told Jane's.
A joint United States report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the US Institute for Peace has also revealed that China has "contingency plans" in the event of North Korea's implosion. The report, entitled 'Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor', said that China was prepared to "take the initiative" and had a military strategy for securing North Korea's "loose nukes" should Kim Jong-Il's rule fail.
Any apocalyptic scenario has to be taken with a grain of salt; in 1997 the Central Intelligence Agency predicted the collapse of North Korea within five years. However, there are reasons for the heightened levels of concern; in particular, the recent actions of Kim Jong-Il and other North Korean officials are being interpreted as signs that the regime is nearing its end.
Tellingly, the 'Dear Leader' is in the process of moving financial resources to ensure that his assets are portable should he have to go into exile, according to some sources.
The centrally controlled economy has also now ceased to function and the food distribution system is near breaking point. With loyalty to the regime at an all-time low, another sign of trouble is the regime's diminishing ability to prevent people from leaving the country.
Image: Kim Jong-Il.
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© 2008 Jane's Information Group
